Jones D FEMC2007

Incorporating Demand Criteria into Traditional Supply-based Forest Models

Douglas Jones,Remsoft Inc., Suite 160, Frederick Square, 77 Westmorland Street, Fredericton, NB, E3B 6Z3, Canada, doug@remsoft.com
Ugo Feunekes,Remsoft Inc., Suite 160, Frederick Square, 77 Westmorland Street, Fredericton, NB, E3B 6Z3, Canada, ugo@remsoft.com

My talk will examine an approach to estate-level modeling that incorporates wood allocation decisions (demand criteria) into integrated land management at the strategic, tactical and operations level.

This goes against convention but has merit because it makes for more operationally-realistic models. Strategic schedules with market intelligence that are passed down to tactical and operational levels are likely more implementable and result in improved plans.

Applying allocation modeling at tactical and operational modeling phases provides further value - more detailed wood supply scheduling to meet mill-specific demands and increasing operating margins by making better allocation decisions from the forest. There is also greater confidence that the spatially explicit harvest schedule will meet mill specific demands in the shorter time frame.

This approach differs from traditional wood supply modeling which is just that - supply driven. The supply oriented approach fails to consider the impact that demand for wood and wood products has on all levels of management planning - even though this demand will ultimately influence the decisions that are made on the ground.

As wood supply becomes scarcer and the requirements for sustainability grow more stringent, the wisdom of incorporating demand decision criteria in integrated management planning will only become more apparent and the need to do so more pressing.

In effect, this demand-inclusive approach incorporates more operational reality into the strategic management planning process. And considering demand variables - wood products, haul costs, mill capacity, et cetera in the strategic planning phase - means forest models that are more realistic not only at the strategic level but also have greater ‘implement-ability’ at the tactical and operational planning level.

This decision process should yield positive financial results and favorable social and environmental outcomes because it will help enable long-term sustainable management of the forest.