Kelley T FEMC2007

Integrating Strategic Forest Estate Modelling with Tactical Scenario Development in Tasmania, Australia

Thomas Kelley, Forestry Tasmania, GP.O. Box 207, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia, tom.kelley@forestrytas.com.au
L.J. Bennett, Forestry Tasmania, GP.O. Box 207, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia, leandra.bennett@forestrytas.com.au
R.A. Hamilton, Forestry Tasmania, GP.O. Box 207, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia, bob.hamilton@forestrytas.com.au

The island of Tasmania is the southern-most state of Australia, with an area of 68,000 square kilometres it is nearly twice the size of Vancouver Island. Forestry Tasmania (FT) is a multiple use land manager of 1.5 million hectares of State forest, of which 1.4 million is native forest and less than 100,000 hectares is plantation. The Planning Branch at FT has a long history of strategic forest estate modelling for periodic government reviews of sustainable yield, timber contract negotiations and business development opportunities. This presentation discusses key elements of FT’s forest estate modelling system such as provisional coupes, silvicultural systems, area discounts, plot-based wood inventory system, growth models, product volume recovery, and linear programming optimisation. Tactical planning has been primarily in the form of three-year wood production schedules assembled by district field planners in relative isolation from strategic models. Attempts at district derived ten-year scenarios have proved time consuming, lacking rigour and rapidly outdated by changing political and market conditions.

The rationale for tactical planning includes proving feasibility of strategic models, analysis of business proposals, and forecasting the effect of conservation issues. However, the integration of strategic and tactical planning at FT has been hampered by a lack of resources and higher priorities. This presentation reports on recent efforts to assist field planners to develop tactical scenarios based on strategic models. Remsoft’s Spatial Planning System was used in one Forest District to test strategic supply targets and develop meaningful tactical scenarios with district planners. Separately, Manifold, a third-party GIS application was examined as a potential tool for district planners to finesse strategic model output into more useful tactical scenarios.