Snetsinger J FEMC2007

Looking back and thinking forward

Jim Snetsinger, Ministry of Forests and Range, P.O. Box 9525 Stn Prov Govt Victoria, BC, V8W 9C3, Canada, jim.snetsinger@gov.bc.ca

British Columbia has experienced dramatic shifts in forest harvest regulations as a result of changing public values, harvesting techniques, processing capabilities and much more.

To assist with sustainable management, at least once every five years, British Columbia’s independent chief forester is required by law to determine how much wood can be harvested from 37 Timber Supply Areas and 33 Tree Farm Licences. To support this determination, the Ministry of Forest and Range conducts a “Timber Supply Review” which involves the collection of information with respect to forest composition, forest management, the many ecological values in the forest, socio-economic interests and other factors. The review process typically includes the consideration of information around timber supply with a forest estate modelling analysis. Each allowable annual cut determination involves not only the consideration of these factors but also many uncertainties.

The mountain pine beetle infestation, which has affected to some degree an area as big as New Brunswick and Nova Scotia combined, has taken uncertainty to a new level. It has also accelerated the Timber Supply Review process - requiring faster decisions that are more focused on the short term while having immense mid- and long-term implications.

The infestation has led to a need to challenge and question assumptions in both our forest management and our forest estate modelling. The lessons learned will help British Columbia deal with not only forest health issues but with climate change in general and associated challenges. Forest estate models will play a role in this understanding but there will be a need for even more of a collaborative approach to explore a much broader range of possible futures. Further, British Columbia must ensure it has up-to-date information on land base and management practices, new technology may help, and modelling and the decision processes should take advantage of such improvements.

British Columbia, with its large forest land base and its developed forest management has a history from which to learn and a future that can take advantage of such learning. It is important to look back and think forward - to reflect on the past to strengthen forest estate modelling for the future and to create a culture that pushes the boundaries of current understanding.