Waddell D FEMC2007

Complexity Versus Accuracy: Inclusion, Exclusion and Aggregation of Data Elements and the Effects on Strategic Harvest Scheduling Problems

Dave Waddell, Ministry of Forests and Range, P.O. Box 9512 Stn. Prov. Govt , Victoria, BC, V8W 9C3, Canada, Dave.Waddell@gov.bc.ca
Tim Bogle, Ministry of Forests and Range, P.O. Box 9512 Stn. Prov. Govt , Victoria, BC, V8W 9C3, Canada, Tim.Bogle@gov.bc.ca
Christine Fletcher, Ministry of Forests and Range, P.O. Box 9512 Stn. Prov. Govt , Victoria, BC, V8W 9C3, Canada, christine.fletcher@gov.bc.ca
Atmo Prasad, Ministry of Forests and Range, P.O. Box 9512 Stn. Prov. Govt , Victoria, BC, V8W 9C3, Canada, Atmo.Prasad@gov.bc.ca

Consider the evolution of harvest scheduling problems since the 1980’s. In general we have moved from aspatial non-contiguous aggregate analyses to spatially contiguous disaggregate analyses. Data elements included in a particular analysis have gone from few to many without due consideration to the source and scale of the data collected. Since spatial analyses are generally more complicated than aspatial analyses, forest managers have equated complexity with accuracy. Therefore spatial harvest scheduling and complex data layers have become the defacto standard.

The purpose of this study is to develop recommendations on the appropriate level of detail for analysis done in support of different types of decisions. We present a study on the effects of including, excluding and aggregating various data elements input into a spatial harvest scheduling model and examine the effects on strategic decisions. We will look at harvest flow as a surrogate for an Annual Allowable Cut determination.